The ongoing economic blockade in Manipur spearheaded by the All-Naga Students' Association Manipur (ANSAM) over the state government's declaration of June 18 as 'State Integrity Day' raises certain ethno-political and security issues apart from the administrative and economic limbo in which it has landed the state.

To begin with, in an ethno-communally charged political climate as in Manipur, the wisdom of the state government in declaring June 18 a state holiday is questionable. It was on this day in 2001 that the majority Meitei community, in a mass protest against perceived threats to the territorial integrity of the state, burnt down the state legislature following reports of a possible cession by the Government of India to the NSCN (IM) demand for integration of all Naga inhabited territories.

Ideally, the state government ought to be a neutral arbiter between communities living within its territory, while at the same time resolutely safeguarding the territorial and other interests of the state. By declaring June 18 as 'State Integrity Day', the state government acted at the behest of the majority Meitei community, arousing much chagrin from a section of its Naga population who are supportive of Naga integration. The move is seen as an appropriation of the state government for the dominant community's interests, and that, incidentally, happens to be the heart of the entire crisis.

It is this real or perceived misappropriation of the state and its various machineries by the dominant group which, over time, has created cleavages in the political and ethno-emotional integrity of the state that subsequently surfaced to threaten its territorial integrity.

Today, the state government is in dire straits. It cannot revoke its decision now as it will earn it the ire of the Meiteis , nor can it afford to stick to it, unless of course, it finds an amicable way of ending the blockade. The state is reeling under severe shortage of fuel, LPG, and other essential items. There are reports that a single LPG refill costs Rs. 1,600 upwards. The state administration has admitted to having limited stocks of fuels like petrol, diesel and kerosene. As a result, the black markets are thriving. Most of the state's supplies are routed along the national highways 39 and 53. Both these highways pass through areas dominated by Nagas and as such ANSAM supporters enjoy easy access and control to affect the blockade.

The prolonged blockade resulting in enormous hardships to the common man is testimony to the state government's failure to maintain law and order. Further prolongation could see the promulgation of President's Rule in the state. In this scenario, what options does the state government have? The chief minister, O Ibobi Singh, has gone on record to state that the move was not intended to hurt any section of the population. But, the question that arises is whether it was intended to please all sections of the people in the state. An honest reply to this question from the government and necessary action flowing from there will certainly help.

On the question of security, such an irresponsible decision of the government has the potential to derail the ongoing peace talks with the NSCN (IM) at the central level. The NSCN (IM) has commented to the effect that it will not remain a silent spectator to the forcible repression of Naga student activists across the state. In this light, it is irrelevant whether reports about the NSCN (IM) being behind the blockade are true. One can safely conclude that the entire drama has been well orchestrated between the insurgent group and ANSAM, as also the Naga Students Federation of Nagaland (NSF), which have declared its support to the economic blockade. Nagaland chief minister Neiphiu Rio has also made his government's intentions clear when he stated that he cannot guarantee the safe passage of Manipur bound supply trucks through Nagaland.

It will be appropriate to look at this entire episode through the prism of ethno-political discord which currently subsumes the region. All the states in the Northeast are characterized by ethnic heterogeneity and the existence of a dominant group alongside several minority ethnic communities. Discord between different communities with varied degrees of intensity is also common to the region. That these conflicts are almost always caused by real or perceived threats to identity, demand and denial of some form of ethnic based self-determination is by now a hackneyed conclusion among informed circles. However, debate continues on as to what would be the solution(s).

While developmental advocates prescribe economic upliftment and developmental initiatives as the panacea for the region's many ills, there are others who advocate political and administrative decentralization. However, the fact remains that no single solution is possible and that both economic development and varied degrees of politico-administrative autonomies on ethnic lines, attuned to specific situations promises the most dividends. Yet again, for how long and to what level can such an approach be adopted? One such answer could be to dole out generous doses of autonomy to the various communities within the present territorial arrangements. The case of Manipur presents a suitable one to experiment with such an approach.

*** The article was originally published July 26, 2005 at http://www.ipcs.org

*** The writer is with the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.

*** The article has been published with due permission from the Institute of Peace & Conflict Studies (IPCS).

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