Indeed today, most parts of North-East are much more disturbed than ever before; development is stalled, bureaucracy is bloated and nothing is left for funding development; unemployment is acute; clamor for Independence and Creation of New States is at its peak.

It would have been simpler to describe these phenomena as a natural corollary to or fallout from the process when a traditional society modernizes. While this is partially true, the main problems lie elsewhere. The crisis is one of identity, security and underdevelopment, all interlinked.

One must realize that North-East is a mini India. There are more than 75 major population groups and subgroups, speaking approximately 400 languages and dialects, of which there are about 168 in Arunachal Pradesh, 95 in Nagaland, 87 in Manipur, 100 in Tripura and 200 in Assam, Meghalaya and Mizoram. One political geographer remarked, “by virtue of its location in the transitional zone between East and South Asia, the region characteristically exhibits amalgamation of phenomena, with factors of race, language and religion. This enabled every sub region in the study area to display distinct Socio-Cultural and Politico-Economic leanings and attributes” (Gopalakrishnan, Socio-Political Framework in North East India, 1996, p 27). The elite of the different dominant groups having seen that neither size of population nor economic viability matters in establishing states within the Indian Union and that only political pressure, violent or otherwise, is required, there is an upsurge of demand for subdividing Assam again and the potential demand for subdividing Tripura, Meghalaya and Manipur cannot be underestimated.

The concept of Nagalim is a clear example of this unfortunate trait, which is guised as an aspiration for Self-Determination of the people. On the one hand, the experiment with autonomous district councils or for that matter village councils in Nagaland has not, for various reasons, proved to be successful; on the other, the states have failed to deliver the basic requirements of a society. On top of this, state politicians with the help of the bureaucracy siphon off a big chunk of state financial resources, mostly coming from the center. This comes as an incentive to the so-called elite groups for demanding new states. Creation of states not on the basis of economic viability but on political aspirations has not really helped the populace. Most of the budgetary resources are spent on salaries and to a smaller extent on debt service, leaving practically nothing for development. Income disparities have grown and regional disparities, after the introduction of the liberalization policies, have grown even further. The north-east states have lagged behind economically further and further in relation to the other states.

In addition to the demand for creation of new states, there are long pending demands backed by violent struggles in Nagaland, Manipur and Assam for Independence.

Looking at this kaleidoscope, one wonders why there have been such violent and vociferous demands for independence and for new states in the North-East. Indeed, no other part of India has been subjected to such a prolonged violent struggles, which have held development to ransom, as the North-East.

Behind all these demands and struggles, the overriding factor is one of identity. The fear of losing identity is paramount. This is compounded by the security factor, which is essentially protecting the land from outsiders. The latter factor was so important that as far back as 1873 the colonial power introduced the inner line regulations for most of the areas. The hill states fear that people from the plains and neighboring countries may take their lands to set up trade, industrial projects and thus jeopardize their security and upset the demographic balance. Mizos told the then home minister S B Chavan in 1994 that “the need for tribal people is survival as tribal and development is our secondary issue”. For that reason, the Mizoram government does not even levy sales tax, the most productive of state taxes. If sales tax is levied, registration certificate will have to be given to outside traders, which will enable them to establish residency.

Assam did not have an inner line permit system. As a result of this and taking advantage of it, there was induced immigration and later influx from Bangladesh and Nepal. The immigration problem has overshadowed all other problems since 1979. There is no realistic estimate of immigrants, but estimate varies between 30 and 40 lakhs. During 1971-91, the Muslim population grew nearly twice as much as the Hindu. The rate of growth of voters in the immigrant areas has been higher than the rate of population growth of the state. One observer reflected the sentiments of the Assamese people in 1985: “Within fifty years they will form the majority in Assam. The next step will be a referendum on merger with Bangladesh. With Assam gone India will have no land link with the rest of the North-East India” (Assam Tribune, August 17, 1985).

This may be imaginary and unlikely to happen, but the fear is real amongst the indigenous people of Assam. The Assam Accord of 1985, which dealt with the foreigners’ issue and was supposed to identity and deport foreigners from Assam, was a total failure as far as this issue is concerned. The IM (DT) Act, which was introduced only in Assam while the rest of India follows another Act, was a non-starter. The various central and state governments including the AGP government in Assam have promised scrapping of this Act, but have done nothing in view of the governments’ dependence on minority votes and on their MPs and MLAs.
Therefore, no government in Assam can afford to alienate this sizeable group. In August 1994, no sooner former chief minister Hiteswar Saikia made a statement in the Assam assembly that in a single year 30 lakh Bangladeshi infiltrators had entered Assam, the leader of the Muslim Forum threatened that unless the chief minister withdrew his statement, the Forum would pull him down in five minutes. The chief minister later said that “there is not a single foreigner in Assam”. Therefore, the solution to this vexed problem becomes difficult if not impossible. In the meantime, agitation and struggle go on. Frustrated youth lose faith in the system and take up arm for Independence.

An eminent historian has remarked, “a solution of the problems of foreign nationals is apparently extremely bleak. If the inflow of infiltrators remains unabated even at the present rate it will be only a question of time when the indigenous Assamese will be alien in their own home” (Borpuzari, North East India: Problems, Policies and Prospects, 1998, p 126).

If such were the case, clearly some reassessment of the issue is necessary. Fourteen years have passed by and people have become disenchanted with the progress of identification and deportation of foreigners. AASU continues to agitate on the issue, submits memorandum to Prime Minister, Home Minister and Chief Election Commissioner and observes ‘Betrayal Day’, etc. The Bodos, on the other hand, decided to settle the issue themselves through what is called ethnic cleansing. The recent Kuki-Naga clashes are another sad episode. Arunachalis, Khasis in Meghalaya, indigenous Tripuris and Mizos were not to be left behind; they also had their own scores to settle. There was a time in 1987 when there was a clamor which can still to be heard, from a section of politicians that all of North-East should have inner line regulations or Kashmir style constitutional safeguards.

While all these agitations go on, the influx is unabated and attempt to deport foreigners are stalled. The Bangladesh government is in no mood to receive such huge numbers of people and, in fact, denies emigration. The Central Government is equally reluctant to pursue the matter with Bangladesh. Under these circumstances some rethinking on the problem is necessary.

Among political developments, another important one needs to be mentioned. While the state legislative system is well developed, at the tertiary level of district councils, panchayats, village council, the system has not either got off the ground or not worked properly. The states are equally reluctant to share resources and functions. No elections have taken place to panchayats in Assam despite high court orders. The Shukla Commission recommended that those services which are village specific like rural water supply, elementary education, primary health, PDS, etc, should be implemented at the panchayat/district council/village council level. This will enable peoples’ participation and better transparency and probably lessen corruption. But this has not happened.

On another front, arguments have been made that while the North-East has a land area of about 8 per cent, but peoples’ representation in the Parliament is only 4 per cent. This may not be a tenable argument. But there is an element of truth in it. Take, for instance, Mizoram; it has only one MP in the Lok Sabha. The system being what it is, he may get to speak only once in five years. This is totally unacceptable. Entire Mizoram may remain unheard. Some better methods have to be established.

Along with the issues of identity and security, underdevelopment is the third factor, which has given rise to agitation and insurgency. Barring Nagaland all other insurgency movements in the North-East had their genesis in Economic Backwardness.

At the beginning of the planning era, the North-East economy compared well with the rest of the states. No sooner the effects of Partition were felt, the Economies started faltering. For, the region lost the most vital transportation routes through East Pakistan. Instead, it had to take a long, fragile and circuitous route, which was costly. As a result, anything the region produced became expensive to market outside and its products became uncompetitive. The region, on the other hand, had to pay more for all the products brought from outside of the region. If there was one overriding problem, it was the connectivity problem. Unfortunately, even after 50 years of independence, it is the same. Lack of infrastructure, particularly communication, transportation and power, became critical. Together with the lack of investible capital and lack of entrepreneurship, this slowed down the pace of development. Local entrepreneurs, already small in number, could not seize the available opportunities.

Agriculture which is the mainstay and on which 70-80 per cent of the populace depend is still traditional and rice output is only one-third that of Punjab. The region is rich in horticultural products, but again the productivity is low and because of lack of market access farmers do not get remunerative prices and get discouraged. The region is blessed with water resources, yet it imports about half of its fish requirements from outside. Even worse is the case of livestock development. Assam imports 74 per cent of its milk products, 94 per cent of eggs and 98 per cent of its meat requirement. Except Manipur and Tripura, whose agricultural productivity per unit of land is higher than the all-India average, in the rest of the states in north-east agricultural productivity is a point of concern. In 1991-96 Assam’s agricultural growth rate was estimated at 1.2 per cent, much below the rate of growth of population and that of Meghalaya 0.8 per cent and Tripura 0 per cent. Despite the fact that agriculture and allied sectors contribute more than 31 per cent to state GDP and has the potential to grow the state’s budget allocation to this sector is meager. Assam spends only 7 per cent out of a total Rs. 6,000 crore budget on that sector. Manufacturing sector is small, never contributes more than 5-6 per cent to the state national product. Due to lack of investment, growth is stagnant. Only the service sector, i.e., government, and the construction sector, due to government investment mostly on border roads in some states, are growing.

The Shukla Commission estimated that about Rs. 2,500 crores worth of consumables are imported from outside the region every year. In addition, the credit-deposit ratio being very low in the region, the banking sector transfers something like Rs. 5,000 crores from this region to other regions for investment. Because of prolonged insurgency in the region, despite abundance of natural resources (oil, gas, coal, granite, limestone, water and forest wealth), no outside investment has taken place. Indeed there was capital flight in the last eight years from the region. Unemployment, particularly educated unemployment, is high. All these have compounded the problem.

Looking back, the planning priorities of governments, both Central and State, were faulty. The implementation of projects and programs was even worse. Whatever Public Sector enterprises were established, almost all got sick due to mismanagement. Basic requirements like law and order, justice, primary education, primary health, water supply and sanitation, motorable roads and electricity could not be delivered by the states despite having received from the center Rs. 42,000 crores during the last seven years. The per capita devolution is highest in the North-East amongst the states. This is, however, not without reason. All projects in the North-East are big and lumpy. Projects can be implemented only during five months of the year due to prolonged monsoon; all projects cost more because of transportation problem. Whatever the reasons, the common man has not been benefited by the huge development effort. Corruption, like in other states, is all pervasive. People at large in the North-East are very critical of the performance of the governments, which have failed to harness the abundant natural resources of the region and exploit the potential of border trade with Myanmar and Bangladesh.

Insurgency in Nagaland is the oldest in the region, though it has been halted at various times by the signing of accords and obtaining of concessions. The more aggressive NSCN has its origin in 1975 and for the last 28 years has waged a war against the establishment. Mizos fought for nearly 20 years. ULFA, the Bodos and other outfits in the North-East are comparatively new. Nagas, after half a century of instability, are clamoring for peace; a cease-fire with a section of NSCN is in place. The other section has still to make up its mind. Local people say that this has enabled the Underground to come overground and collect extortion money and taxes more openly.

In any case, Insurgency can survive only when the local population gives support or remains indifferent. Unless local people clearly make a choice in favor of government, insurgent outfits will survive in some form or other till the ground for insurgency is removed. Local people make the choice when they see the benefits. Unfortunately in several states on the North-East, local people are still largely indifferent, mainly because governments have miserably failed to deliver the basic necessities of life. They also see the pervasive corruption. Lately, however, both in Nagaland and in parts of Assam a realization has come that the costs involved on both sides are tremendous and the time has come to discuss the issues.

To sum up, even after the creation of seven states to satisfy the ethnic aspirations of the local people, the region is, still in turmoil. Further balkanization is being demanded which will lead to creation of very small and totally unviable states. The states have not been able to deliver the basic goods to their people. There is a growing discontent over the level of corruption. The regional disparity between the other states of India and the North-East has widened as also the disparity between the rich and the poor within the region. Except Mizoram and Manipur, all other states have a higher percentage of people below the poverty level than the all-India average.

Clearly, some rethinking is necessary. Existing policies have not worked; further creation of states will not guarantee the end of the problem. Independence is beyond the purview of any government to grant. What is required therefore are the following:

(1) Encourage free, frank and open debate on the issues of the North-East within and outside the region; let the population understand the issues in their perspectives and in totality.

(2) Willingness on the part of the Government of India to discuss unconditionally with all major Insurgent Groups.

(3) Rethinking is necessary on the issue of Federalism, to enable States and tertiary level institutions to participate fully in the all-round development of their constituents.

(4) Sincere efforts are required on the part of the Central and State Governments to strengthen the functioning of tertiary level institutions like panchayats, autonomous districts/village councils.

(5) The foreigners issue needs to be reassessed in view of the current situation. Serious efforts are needed from all quarters to solve this vexed problem, which seems insolvable. Some rethinking is necessary.

(6) Identity and security which are such emotional issues in the North-East can be assured through various means which need to be explored. Land alone need not be the only means of security.

(7) Consideration for giving labor permits to Bangladeshis and Nepalese may not be ruled out once identity cards to the residents are given.

(8) The Central Government had commissioned various studies through committees and commissions. Two former prime ministers also announced hefty packages for the North-East. . People at the ground level do not see any difference. Indeed people have become disenchanted and cynical. Money alone will not help, unless accompanied by strict accountability. Money has come before, it may come again, but the people’s lot will not improve if the same system of disbursement is followed. Radical thinking is necessary.

(9) At the same time, one cannot emphasize too much that whatever the commitments made by the Central Government should be honored through a time bound plan.

(10) In a federal structure, it is the responsibility of the Central Government to see that regional disparity does not go beyond a point. Reasonable, not total, parity need to be maintained.

(11) Lack of appreciation and understanding of North-East in the rest of India, particularly in the power centers, has compounded problems. This needs to be removed.

There is a tendency at the Center and elsewhere to see this region as a liability. But one must recognize that the region was once prosperous and peaceful till extraneous factors, not of their making, began to hurt. Its hydropower potential, oil and gas resources, its forest wealth, if prudently used with linkages with South-East Asia can benefit the whole country. Therefore it is time to see the area as an asset rather than a liability.