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The Rise Of Political Conflicts In Modern Burma (1947-2004)- PART 4
By Nehginpao Papao
CHAPTER 5: SOLUTION OF CONFLICTS

Some positive developments

So far, the conflict has no substantive solutions. If the present government, comprised mainly of the Burman ethnic group, is sincere, problems in the country could be solved even without the intervention of any third country. The government should either hand over power to the democratically elected government or formulate a program that could mutually be accepted by the regime, the opposition parties, and leaders of respective ethnic groups. Meanwhile, in this regard, the government has so far made positive developments by bringing some of the ethnic insurgent groups including the dominant ones to negotiating table and even made formal ceasefire agreements with them. The rebel groups include; Chinese Myanmar National Democratic Army in Kokang District of Shan State, United Wa State Army, the Shan/Akha/Wa National Democratic Alliance Army, the newly reconstituted Shan State Army and the New Democratic Army, which was Kachin, United Wa State Army (1989), Kachin Independence Army 4th Brigade (1991), and the Kachin Independence Organization (1993). In all, 22 armed groups, some quite small, either made ceasefires with or surrendered to Rangoon between 1989 and 1997. One significant achievement for the Junta in recent years is that it could bring the strongest and longest ethnic rebel group, Karen National Union (KNU), to the negotiating table. As I write this paper, a verbal ceasefire has been reached between the two in December 2003, albeit, the formal agreement is yet to be signed.

The government should show sincerity in its attempt to solving the decades' old problems with ethnic groups. There should be political equality, liberty, and a sense of peaceful coexistence and mutual understanding. Even if democracy is restored as demanded by all opposition groups and the international community, the decades' old conflicts will not subside as long as the government ignores the grievances of the minority ethnic groups. In that case, democracy will be restored, but problems will still exist. The long lasting solution will be achieved if both the minority ethnic groups and the majority Burmans could build mutual trust among themselves. The government should give up pursuing the policy of aggression against the insurgent groups; instead, they should invite them all to participate in a meaningful dialogue to find political solution. If the demands of ethnic groups are resisted with force, the Union of Burma could even break up into pieces in the years ahead.

In the meantime, the demands of ethnic groups such as Kuki, Lahu, Naga, Palaung, Rohingya, Wa, etc. who are not having their own states, and yet suppressed, are also to be given due consideration. Development and prosperity could be achieved only if there is peace and mutual trust among the people. 

CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION

Political solution to ethnic problems

The conflicts in Burma have a long history. Some of the ethnic insurgent groups have been fighting against the successive governments ever since the country gained independence from the British, while some of the ethnic insurgent groups were formed in the late 1980s and in the early 1990s. Of the many underground groups, the Karen National Union has been one of the fiercest groups in the country. The group fights for the establishment of a genuine Federal Union of Burma with all the states having equal rights and the right to self-determination. Since the 8888 uprising and the subsequent events, a number of ethnic insurgent groups have been pushing for the restoration of democracy in the country and the establishment of a true federal democratic government. Whatever the causes are, one thing is clear that the stalemate between the Burman government and the ethnic insurgent groups will continue if the government ignores the doctrines of equality, liberty and fraternity at the national level. 

At present, almost all insurgent groups give their focus on the restoration of democracy, and the safeguarding of human rights in the country. It is hard to predict whether these ethnic insurgency problems will end once democracy is restored in the country. The country’s future will certainly depend on the leaders of the future democratic Burma. The contemporary political situation shows that even a large section of the Burmans themselves got involved in waging war against the leadership of the military regime. Among others, insurgent groups such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), an armed wing of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), and the Wa ethnic group that have entered into a ceasefire agreement with the military regime, weakening the strength of the collective opposition forces. The military regime has been trying its best to persuade different ethnic insurgent groups to lay down their arms. Although some insurgent groups so far refuse to hold dialogue, quite a good number of groups have decided to work together with the military junta.

There has been steady progress on the part of the government in bringing several armed groups into ceasefire table. Till very recently, several armed groups made ceasefire with the military regime. Although there is no complete silence, there has been a tremendous drop in arms conflicts across the country since 10 years back. As I write this paper, the government is holing rounds of talks with the longest armed group in the country, the Karen National Union (KNU). However, there has not been any formal ceasefire agreement signed by the two parties. Other armed groups such as Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and Chin National Front (CNF) have also expressed their willingness for a formal and complete ceasefire with the government. KNPP once signed a ceasefire agreement with the military government in 1995, but collapsed within weeks.

Co-operation for peaceful solution

In the meantime, there are some other ethnic groups such as the Rohingyas in Arakan state, Pa- O, Lahu and Wa ethnic groups in Shan state, who are fighting for autonomy. It is sometime difficult to predict what the future of Burma will look like, whether the status-quo of the existing seven states and seven divisions will remain intact or be broken down into different smaller states. The Kukis in upper Sagaing Division are also consistently demanding for the restoration of their land, which is now occupied by mixed ethnic groups. It is important to note that the successive military regimes have been following a policy of Burmanization where they transplant Burmese immigrants in minority ethnic dominated areas. Fundamental rights are said to be totally absent. Laws of the land are in the hands of a few Burmese top army generals. Forced labor and human rights violations are largely practiced in minority ethnic populated areas. Child soldiers are also very common in Burma. Many young children are kidnapped and threatened with dire consequences if they refuse to join military. This practice has ruined the lives of thousands of the younger generation. Due to the excessive use of forced labors, human rights violations, and crimes against humanity, Burma is isolated from the international community, particularly from the western countries.

To bring a long lasting solution to the decades old conflicts in Burma, it needs the sincerity, honesty and the participation of all ethnic groups. Different ethnic groups should be brought into confidence, and their legitimate demands should be looked into. The country needs changes and improvements in all fields – political, socio-economic, education, and so on and so forth. Political problems should be solved by political means. At present, all opposition forces, including ethnic insurgent groups are fighting for a common cause i.e., the restoration of democracy in the country. In the process of restructuring the devastated country, all ethnic groups should be invited to participate. 

Last but not the least; the international community should step up their pressures against the military regime in order to bring a significant change in the country. The international community should evaluate the effectiveness of economic sanctions. If not effective, they should come up with an alternative method to do the job better. The day will come when justice prevails. The day is drawing nearer for the downfall of the Burman ethnic group dominated military dictatorship. To achieve the above said goals, the people need unity, patience, endurance and concerted efforts. Different ethnic minorities and the majority Burman ethnic group should set aside their differences in order to achieve their common objectives.


BURMA AT A GLANCE: FACTS AND FIGURES

Country name: Union of Burma (1948), Socialist Republic of the Union of Burma (1974), Union of Myanmar (1989)

Government: State Peace and Development Council

System of Government: Military Dictatorship 

Area: 261,228 sq miles or 678,500 sq kilometers

Coastline: 1,760 miles

Population: 50 million (approximately)

Population growth rate: 0.56%

Refugees from Burma: approximately 300,000 in Thailand, 12,000 in China and India, 20,000 in Bangladesh

Internally displaced people: approximately two million people

Birth rate: 19.65 births/1,000 population

Death rate: 12.25 deaths/1,000 population

Life expectancy: 53.85 yrs for males, 57.07 yrs for females 

No. of TV’s per 1,000 people: 7

No. of doctors per 10,000 people: 2.96 

Languages: Arkansas, Burmese, Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Mon, Shan, Wa, English and more than 100 minority dialects

Religions: Buddhist (89.3%), Animist (0.2%), Christian (5.6%), Muslim (3.8%), Hindu (0.5%)

Burmese Border Refugees: Karenni camps- 20,091

(December 2001) Karen camps - 125,118

Mon-Resettlement Sites- 138,117

Maneeloy Student Center- 1,767

Inflation CPI: 11.5%

GDP spending: 3. 1 % on military (non-SPDC figures: over 50%) 2.2% education, 0.8% health.

LDC status: since 1987

Natural resources: tin, plutonium, zinc, copper, cobalt, gold, rubies, jade, limestone, lead, coal, tungsten, teak (80% of world’s reserves), fish (704 metric ton/year), gas, oil, rice, sesame, groundnuts

Agriculture: 68% of workforce employed in agriculture; 15% of arable land; less than 50% of potentially productive land under cultivation

Opium production: 1,300 tons (1988), 2,800 tons (1997), 1,800 tons (1998) (70% of US market)

Administrative areas: Seven States (Arakan, Chin, Mon, Shan, Kachin, Karen, Kayah), Seven Divisions (Irrawaddy, Magwe, Mandalay, Pegu, Rangoon, Sagaing, Tenasserim)

Last election: May 27, 1990. NLD won 392 of the 485 seats contested

[There is a caveat on the facts and figures as accurate data is not readily available, even in official publications. Most of the facts and figures contained herein are drawn from SPDC’s sources including their publication Myanmar Facts and Figures 2002, published by the Ministry of Information Union of Myanmar 2002]

Source: Burma Human Rights Yearbook (2002-03)

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Concluded...

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