Features- Unity, Development and Peace

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Unity, Development and Peace- (Sept 22 '01)
By E Bijoykumar Singh

The thematic issues in the public dialogue initiated by AMUCO are such that they have to be addressed simultaneously if anything significant is to be achieved. The attempt to integrate unity and peace in any development model formally is indeed a new challenge to the discipline. Having failed repeatedly to steer the developing countries from a low level equilibrium, a stage has come where the usefulness of the subject is being questioned.

However the reality is that development has remained an illusive goal not inspite of developement economics but due to persistent failure to apply economic principles in economic policy making. Policy makers have to take into account so many constraints, which involves extensive compromising in economic principles. Earlier political compulsions used to be important, but now issues like unity and peace have emerged as significant factors affecting development of any society.

Development can be interpreted m myriad ways. However they should lead to a situation, where the people can lead a purposeful life with access to basic amenities. In the case of Manipur, limitations of date circumscribe the period of analysis to post 1960-1 period only.

According to an IMF paper Manipur had the highest annualized per capita real income growth rate during 1961-91 among 20 Indian states. Though Manipur had below average all-India per capita income in 1961, it had a relatively high rate of growth of 3.32% as against 1.82% for all lndia. However despite the high growth rate and relatively uniform year to year growth it continues to have a low ranking. The ranking of the state according to per capita state domestic product rose from 20 in 1972 to 16 in 1995 in a group of 22 states and union territories.

Thus despite the high growth rate, the goal of catching up with the all lndia level has remained illusive. The proportion of real per capita income of Manipur to real per capita income of India declined from 0.87 in 1980-1 to 0.75 in 1995-96. Inspite of the general tendency for growth rates to converge across states, Manipur's per capita income continues to lag behind. The impact of economic reforms initiated in the early 90's is yet to become visible. Trade, hotels and restaurants is the only sub sector which appears to have gained significantly in the post reforms period. The annual growth rate of this sub sector with a 5% share in state income rose from 2.42% during 1972- 90 to 12.63% during 1991-96. The annual growth rate of manufacturing decline from
6.12% to zero.

Proportion of poor people, unemployment rate and inflation rate are three issues to be discussed in any debate on development. Lowering the proportion of people below the poverty line, unemployment rate and inflation rate are major objectives of any developmental plan. Today there are about 4 lakhs applicants in the employment exchanges of Manipur. It is commonly believed that the problem of unemployment among the educated youth in particular has become a major factor behind social unrest.

However if national sample survey data which are considered to be more reliable than any other currently available source are to be believed, the problem of unemployment indicated by the rate of unemployment is practically non-existent. One explanation of this maybe the low quality of employment in the state. Working persons who are mostly self-employed find the income insufficient and are always on the lookout for additional work to supplement the meager income. Though students are not to be included in the labor force, many of them continue to be students while awaiting for jobs in employment exchanges.

Besides a developmental process generates lots of job opportunities. There will be unemployment if the skill composition of people looking for jobs does not match with the skill requirement of emerging job opportunities. In the case of proportion of poor people, even though, NSS data indicate a dwindling poverty ratio the levels differ widely. As per NSS data for Manipur, the proportion of people below the poverty line is about 10%. However the Planning Commission uses the Assam figure of 33% for all north-eastern states including Manipur. The state planning department's estimate for 1988 was 45%.

In view of the recent Supreme Court judgement directing states
to identify poor people in a fixed time frame, this variation needs to be reviewed. Regarding inflation in Manipur, internal factors like changes in supply and demand seems to have insignificant impact on it. A proper understanding of markets in neighboring big states like Assam and of markets with which we have close association is necessary to appreciate the pattern of inflation in Manipur.

One can definitely make the ongoing development plans more effective. At present our plans are highly flexible without any growth target. A slashing of demand from Rs 700 crores to Rs 500 crores does not appear to derail our plans. The impact of public expenditure is not discussed at all. The few studies that have been conducted also show a very weak linkage between growth of state economy and public expenditure. It is generally taken as a routine matter.

The main reason behind this attitude is our level of knowledge regarding parameters of the social process. In the tenth five-year plan (2002-7) states will be asked to state clearly their growth targets. In the case of Manipur, it will be the first time that our plan will reflect the growth target explicitly.

Recently the government of Manipur constituted a Commission to discuss
threadbare the process of economic development in Manipur. This is expected to a be different from the earlier committees who were forced to work overtime to very short deadlines. The experts from the center and the state will have opportunity for mutual interaction. While discussing appropriate development strategy for the state the changing economic environment should be taken into account.

Manipur is being opened up in all directions and our fledging industries have to meet these emerging challenges. The development or lack of development of the hill areas is no longer an issue which can be brushed aside. The performance of hill areas committee in facilitating hill area development needs to be reviewed. Committing some expenditure is no longer sufficient.

It is often said that social institutions in hill areas are decrepit yet if we look at literacy rate, workforce participation rate and infant morality, the hills are doing quite well underscoring the latent strength of these institutions. The amount spent in hill areas need not be written off as sheer wastage. The hills should have opportunity for articulating their felt needs which should be incorporated in development plans.

(Courtesy: The Imphal Free Press)

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