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In the first week of July last year, there
had been a litmus test for the Chief
Minister in his capacity as a leader of the
Congress Party as well as a Chief Minister
of the coalition SPF Govt. He had come
increasingly under pressure at the time of
downsizing the then jumbo sized Ministry.
Nineteen Ministers had to be dropped because
of the downsizing and the important problem
before him at that time was to keep the
retrenched Ministers happy. For that he
might have given assurances and promises
that one day before the expiry of the tenure
of the present SPF Government they would be
inducted again in the Council of Ministers
by dropping some, on the basis of rotation
or performances. Now the Congress MLAs think
that the time has come to remind the CM to
keep his promise lest it will slip away
along with their chances for retaining their
respective seats in the next election.
Well, politicians are famous for not keeping
their promises. It will be a matter of
interest to have an insight to the factors
that have led the dropped out Ministers to
claim again their seats. Why is there a
broiling atmosphere within the Congress
legislatures? In search for the answer of
such kind of tumult within the ruling party,
the first and foremost factor must be a
sense of insecurity among the MLAs when the
next election knocks at their doors. The
next Assembly election is only 18 months at
the most from now. There are also
speculations that Assembly Election may be
held in the last part of 2006 if the
situation at that time favors the SPF.
Let us go back some years in the time
dimension to have a look and a clear view
what our elected representatives want most
in the time of election. It was on the 15th
December 1999, a special session of the last
(6th) Manipur Assembly was convened on this
day. Those days were the days of MSCP in
power with W Nipamacha Singh in the Chief
Minister's seat. There were no agenda. That
Assembly session was meant only or specially
for the farewell of the MLAs. There was a
good atmosphere within the ruling party.
Altogether 34 Ministers were going to
contest for the 7th Manipur Assembly which
was due in February 2000. The undercurrent
idea behind the farewell session was that
there were prides among the ruling party
members for having a chance or powers to
fight the election as Ministers and majority
of the ruling MLAs retained their seats
(later on they shifted their loyalty to BJP
or Samata Party followed by June uprising of
2001).
In every election candidates can fight best
in the election with powers in their hands.
Vote to the man who can join the ruling
party and vote to the man who has the
ability to snatch a berth of Minister when
the Council of Ministers is formed. This is
the psyche of the present electorates in
Manipur. There is no ideology, no party
discipline but money and power matter most.
It affects the psyche of the people so deep
that their candidates if elected must join
the ruling party which is a sure passport
for a ministerial berth and for the MLA
turned Ministers a sure passport of success
in the next election. So the fallout of this
reduction in the number of Ministers is a
blow to the MLAs. This is the main cause of
present wrangling within the Congress.
Though the CM has taken the demand of some
of his MLAs sincerely and seriously but it
will not be serious enough to effect a
change or reshuffle in his present Council
of Ministers. It will be difficult for the
CM to work out a new permutation and
combination whom to drop and whom to induct.
There is no provision for reshuffle at the
present situation. At present there are 4
Ministers from the hill districts 8
Ministers from the valley. Representation
from communities and district-wise
allocations are: Naga- 2, Kuki - 2, Muslim -
1, quota of women - 1, Imphal East - 3
(including Jiribam), Imphal West - 2,
Bishnupur - 2, Thoubal -1, CCpur- 1, Sadar
Hills - 1, Senapati - 1 and Tamenglong - 1.
As a coalition partner CPI has got their
share of 2 Ministers. If the question of
reshuffle arises then for the CPI it will be
the business of the CPI and the Congress has
nothing to do in it if Ibobi wish to spare
the two seats for the CPI.
Again there is no probability of dropping
Leima as she is the lone woman in the
Council of Minister. One Muslim Minister can
only be replaced by another Muslim if the CM
guarantees the quota of minority. Debendra
is the senior most Minister and Congressman
in the pre-sent Government and CM will not
do anything to annoy the veteran politician.
In this watertight compartments of the
present Council of Ministers of the SPF
Government, whom shall the CM has to drop to
induct the other disgruntled MLAs. It is
very unlikely at the present juncture. The
revolting MLAs of the Congress party may
have known this beforehand. But there is no
harm in begging. The present wrangling
within can be taken as a ploy so that there
can be a hard bargain for devolution and
sharing of powers from different portfolios
held by the Ministers so that the MLAs who
have missed the bus for the ministerial
berth act from behind the curtain as
unacknowledged Ministers in the present
Government. It is just a storm in the teacup
and far from rocking the deck of the SPF
Government. But CM has to do something to
pacify the MLAs. |
